成果報告書詳細
管理番号20120000000556
タイトル*平成23年度中間年報 太陽エネルギー技術研究開発/太陽光発電システム次世代高性能技術の開発/発電量評価技術等の開発
公開日2012/6/20
報告書年度2011 - 2011
委託先名国立大学法人岐阜大学
プロジェクト番号P0715
部署名新エネルギー部
和文要約和文要約等以下本編抜粋:
1. 研究開発の内容及び成果等
(1) 研究開発目標
低炭素社会実現に向けた取り組みの一つとして,太陽光発電量システムの利用拡大が進んでいる.しかし火力発電所などの一般の発電システムの多くが出力を制御できるのに対し,太陽光発電システムは,季節・時間・天候などにより出力が大きく変動する.このため,太陽光発電システムの大量導入時には,エネルギーシステムに占める発電電力の割合が増加し,配電系統の電圧変動や潮流変動などの電力システムにおける運用に大きな影響を与えることが予想され,予測技術なしの場合,太陽光発電システムの大量導入に対して重大な障害になることが予想される.
英文要約Title : Solar Energy Technology Research and Development
Development of Next-Generation Photovoltaic Systems' Network Technology
Development of Photovoltaic Generation Assessment Technology
(FY2010-FY2012) FY2011 Annual Report
Recently, photovoltaic systems are widely installed in Japan. They are an example of clean energy, and do not harm the environment. However, the electric generation of a photovoltaic system changes significantly with the season of the year, time of the day and weather conditions. When a large number of photovoltaic systems are connected to electric power grids, the systems output may cause unstable power supply on the grids. To avoid such instability on the grids, it is necessary a prediction of photovoltaic generation and a planning of strategic power supply.Our group is formed by Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Weather Association, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, University of Tokyo and Gifu University. We research and develop two prediction technologies: one for the photovoltaic generation from weather forecasting; and another, for the stability of the power supply on the grids from the predicted photovoltaic generation. Gifu University computes finer weather forecasts, so call 'pinpoint forecasts', with a weather forecasting model WRF from the meteorological data of the Japanese Meteorological Agency, and provides direct and diffuse solar spectrum irradiances, and short period fluctuation intensities of the irradiances.
We, Gifu University have developed a numerical model for the evaluation of direct and diffuse solar spectrum irradiances. It consists of three parts: a weather forecasting model WRF; an evaluation of optical characteristic of clouds; and, a modified atmospheric radiation transfer model SMARTS2. In this project, the weather forecasting data with 5 km in horizontal resolution is applied to the evaluation model and weather with 1 or 2 km in horizontal resolution is computed. And one-day-after direct and diffuse solar spectrum irradiances in arbitrary locations are predicted with the higher resolution weather data.
We also analyze the observed irradiance data and lead statistical characteristics of short period fluctuation. The relation between the fluctuation and the maximum relative humidity in a vertical column is found after examinations of the observed data with the weather conditions computed with WRF. It indicates possibility of forecasting of the irradiance intensity with the weather forecasting model WRF.
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