成果報告書詳細
管理番号20120000000557
タイトル*平成23年度中間年報 太陽エネルギー技術研究開発/太陽光発電システム次世代高性能技術の開発/発電量評価技術等の開発 2 発電量推定と予測技術 (v)分散・広域発電量応用評価技術の研究開発
公開日2012/11/28
報告書年度2011 - 2011
委託先名国立大学法人東京大学
プロジェクト番号P0715
部署名新エネルギー部
和文要約和文要約等以下本編抜粋:
[記載項目]
1. 研究開発の内容及び成果等
今年度は,発電量予測技術仕様を検討するための電力システム解析・評価モデルの開発を実施した。
英文要約 We have developed Models of power system to evaluate specification of forecasting accuracy for generation output from renewable energies.
First, we developed a database of generation plants installed or planned to install in ten power utilities in Japan. Curtailment of photo voltaic (PV) and wind generation was analyzed for the power system in 2030 by adopting future scenarios for installed capacities of PV, wind generation, and base load power plants using a previously developed model based of the load duration curve.
Features of the future scenario are as follows: a large amount of wind power will be installed in the Tohoku area: share of base load power plants will become lower in the Tokyo area: share of base load power plants will become higher in the Kansai area. For all areas in Japan including these major areas, capability of demand-supply adjustment and requirement of the PV output forecasting accuracy were evaluated. It was clarified in this analysis that curtailment of PV and wind generation will be increased due to the decrease of capability of demand-supply adjustment in the future power systems in Japan. This curtailment of PV and wind generation may seriously decrease profitability of these renewable energies.
Next, we developed a unit commitment model to analyze operation time series of power plants using the database of generation plants in ten utilities by considering the PV output forecasting accuracy, demand activation with the demand side management, and electric storage.
We analyzed impacts of the forecast error on the operation cost for a small isolated power system with the demand activation using the developed unit commitment model. We con~rmed typical features expected in the power system: the operation cost was increased with the forecast error: more thermal power plants need to be operated to generate power to absorb sudden decrease in wind power: the increase of operating thermal power plants for the case of a sudden decrease in wind power is reduced by the demand activation.
Next year, we plan to update the database of generation plants based on the newly released the energy basic plain in the coming summer. Using this updated database as input of the developed unit commitment model, we evaluate requirement of the PV output forecasting accuracy in the actual power system of 10 utilities in Japan.
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