成果報告書詳細
管理番号20160000000818
タイトル*平成27年度中間年報 高性能・高信頼性太陽光発電の発電コスト低減技術開発/動向調査等/太陽光発電開発戦略に関する動向調査
公開日2017/2/14
報告書年度2015 - 2015
委託先名みずほ情報総研株式会社
プロジェクト番号P15003
部署名新エネルギー部
和文要約
英文要約Annual installation of PV systems in the world was approximately 40GW in 2014. The capacity installed annually in China was the largest in the world, and that in Japan was the second largest. A cumulative capacity of PV installation in the world was achieved to approximately 177GW at the end of 2014. The cumulative capacity installed in Germany was the largest, and that in Japan was the third largest in the world.
In Japan, a cumulative capacity newly certified under the feed-in-tariff scheme was achieved to 79.4GW by the end of November 2015. A total capacity of PV installation, e.g. starting operation, including PV systems installed before starting the FIT scheme achieved to about 29.4GW at the end of November 2015. In addition, amount of electricity provided from PV systems will over 4% of total electricity demand.
Prices of residential PV systems in the 4th quarter of 2015 were 353,000 JPY/kW for new-build house and 371,000 JPY/kW in average. In case of non-residential PV systems, the prices were 327,000 JPY/kW for 10-50kW system, 324,000 JPY/kW for 50-500kW system, 323,000 JPY/kW for 500-1,000kW system and 280,000 JPY/kW for over 1,000kW system.
The estimated LCOEs in 2015 were analysed to be 18.82 JPY/kWh for new-built house, and 20.29 JPY/kWh for existing house supposing 385,000 JPY/kW, as PV system price. In case of non-residential PV systems, both 280,000 JPY/kW and 251,000 JPY/kW were assumed as PV system price, and the LCOE analysed were 20.07 JPY/kWh and 18.59 JPY/kWh in 2015.
The rapid improvements in PV technologies are the result of competitive R&D by companies and institutes. Hence managing knowledge and patents are of importance. In preparation for patent analysis scheduled in the following fiscal year, key technologies to be focused in the patent analysis were discussed and keywords to search patent database, for example single-seed casting and perovskite-structured thin film PV, were selected.
The method for scenario analysis is reviewed. Latest factors from the standpoint of grid parity, policy, technology, business model and market situation that will be lead scenario separate ways are surveyed. Based on this information, specific influential factors for scenario are reviewed and organized.
Trends and prospect of next generation vehicles, such as hybrid vehicle (HV), plug-in hybrid vehicle (HEV), electric vehicle (EV), fuel cell vehicle (FCV), were surveyed. The amount of sales of the next generation vehicles in 2014 was about two million units in the world. The share of the HVs was 85%, and Japanese market occupied approximately 50% of the world market.
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