タイトル平成23年度成果報告書 バングラデシュ国における新設CCGT発電プロジェクトの案件組成調査
委託先名株式会社 三菱総合研究所
和文要約 本事業は、世界最高水準の熱効率発電設備である天然ガス複合火力発電(CCGT: Combined Cycle Gas Turbine)プロジェクトを対象に、丸紅株式会社と株式会社三菱総合研究所が調査を実施したものである。バングラデシュでは、急激な経済成長を背景に電源供給が不足しており、ピーク時を中心に恒常的な計画停電を余儀なくされている。また同国の天然資源は天然ガスを除き極めて限られており、電源構成のうち88%を天然ガス火力発電に依存しているが、将来的には国内の天然ガス供給能力は2017年をピークに減少することが予想されている。この深刻な電源供給の問題は同国の経済成長の最大のボトルネックとなっており、新規電源開発による安定的な電力供給は同国の喫緊の課題である。
 ベースケースでの財務的内部収益率 (FIRR : Financial Internal Rate of Return)の計算結果は11.41%(方法論オプション1)、および9.40%(方法論オプション2)となった。前提条件に基づき二国間クレジットの収入がプロジェクト実施主体にもたらされた場合、年間約US$15.7Million(方法論オプション1)、もしくは約US$6.9Million(方法論オプション2)の収入が発電開始後10年間にわたりプロジェクト実施主体に付与されることから、この経済的効果は、O&Mコストの軽減やEPCコストの約17%(方法論オプション2)から約39%(方法論オプション1)がクレジット収入でカバー出来るなど、バングラデシュにおけるCCGT発電所の新規開発推進に大きく寄与するものと言える。
英文要約  This study is conducted by Marubeni Corporation and Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc. for the CCGT project which is a power plant with the highest level of thermal efficiency. With remarkable economic growth in Bangladesh, however, shortage of power supply mostly in peak hours forces scheduled blackouts constantly. Natural resources other than natural gas are very limited in Bangladesh and out of total composition of power sources 88% depends on natural gas fired power. It is expected that the supply of domestic natural gas will reach its peak around 2017 and decline thereafter. This serious shortage of power supply is the hardest problem of all for the country’s economic growth. Accordingly, stable power supply by new power source development is an urgent challenge for the country.
    There are three existing methodologies applicable to this project which has been already approved; two are CDM methodologies (AM0029 and ACM0013) and the third is J-MRV004 developed by JBIC. For identification of baseline and simplification of verification of additionality, standardized baseline has been studied in CDM. Applicability of such new concept as well as existing methodologies to this project was discussed. This project satisfies applicable conditions of every existing CDM methodology. Accordingly, baseline emission factors were calculated for all methodologies. It became clear that there is a wide range of difference in emission factor depending on the calculation method from 0.542~0.762kg-CO2/MWh. Amount of emission reduction of this project is calculated on the basis of maximum and minimum values of expected baseline emission factors. Difference in the amount of emission reduction by chosen emission factor is 542,163~1,232,794t-CO2/year. It clearly shows that up to 690,000t difference will be created in emission reduction. Ripple effect of this project would be about 8.3 ~18.8 million t-CO2.For the purpose of verification of additionality, average power generation cost in the host country and that of the project were compared. An idea to regard it as “additional” automatically when it exceeds the threshold of emission factor was also reviewed. It could be an additional from these perspectives.
    FIRR (Financial Internal Rate of Return) for the base case calculated on 11.41% (with Credit Revenue by Option 1) and 9.40% (with Credit Revenue by Option 2). When income from bilateral credits based on the prerequisites were brought to the responsible organization conducting the project, this organization will get about US$15.7 million by Option 1 or about US$6.9million by Option 2 for 10 years after power generation begins. The economic effects include reduction of O&M cost and supplying about 17~39% of EPC cost. It would surely contribute to the promotion of new development of CCGT power plant in Bangladesh.